Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
